Category Archives: War on Terror

Less War, More Peace in 2006

Foreign Affairs, War on Terror

Strategypage.com had a report about the world’s current hotspots and a look ahead to 2007. In it, they give a summary of various conflicts around the world and some places to watch in the year to see if flare up.

First, they explain the “War on Terror”:

The War on Terror has become the War Against Islamic Radicalism. This movement has always been around, for Islam was born as an aggressive movement, that used violence and terror to expand. Past periods of conquest are regarded fondly by Moslems, and still called upon to inspire the faithful. The current enthusiasm for violence in the name of God has been building for over half a century. Historically, periods of Islamic radicalism flared up periodically in response to corrupt governments, as a vain attempt to impose a religious solution on some social or political problem. The current violence is international because of the availability of planet wide mass media (which needed a constant supply of headlines), and the fact that the Islamic world is awash in tyranny and economic backwardness. Islamic radicalism itself is incapable of mustering much military power, and the movement largely relies on terrorism to gain attention. Most of the victims are fellow Moslems, which is why the radicals eventually become so unpopular among their own people that they run out of new recruits and fade away. This is what is happening now. The American invasion of Iraq was a clever exploitation of this, forcing the Islamic radicals to fight in Iraq, where they killed many Moslems, especially women and children, thus causing the Islamic radicals to lose their popularity among Moslems.

This paragraph should give more pause to the Bush Administration and other neo-cons who want to build democracy without liberalism in the Middle East. A major reason why Islamic states are more tyrannical than most is because of the nature of the Islamic religion, not in spite of it. There must be substantial changes in the Islamic religion before liberal democracy can take off in the Islamic world.

Then, Strategypage analyses some current conflicts in the world:

AFGHANISTAN

Taliban are fighting back more vigorously, but without much success. A sharp increase in Taliban activity in 2006 brought forth a sharp response from government and NATO forces. Independent minded tribes, warlords and drug gangs remain a greater threat to peace, prosperity and true national unity, than the Taliban (which is based across the border in Pakistan).

The Taliban have been reduced to a mere nuisance and Al-Qaeda is beaten. However, Afghanistan is going to be solved by a political solution that result in giving some autonomy to the various regions and tribes while strengthening the central government.

BALKANS

The Greater Albania Movement is driven by part time Albanian nationalists, full time gangsters. Kosovo separatists and a growing number of Islamic radicals. Bosnia continues to attract Islamic terrorists.

I don’t see the Greater Albania crowd getting much support outside of Kosovo (which will probably become independent from Serbia by the end of the decade); but I’m more troubled by the Islamization of Bosnia. During and after the Balkan War, Islamist operatives and fighters have been coming into Bosnia to fight against the Serbs and Croats and to get an Islamist foothold in Europe. If the Islamists feel they’re getting strong enough, they may try and bring down the Bosnian government and turn on the Serb and Croat populations in the country thereby reigniting the Balkan Wars of the early 1990s. This region of the world will bear monitoring.

CENTRAL ASIA

Dictators brew rebellion by suppressing democrats and Islamic radicals. But not much violence, just a lot of potential.

I’m not sure if Islamic radicals could gain traction in this part of the world because of the Soviet successes in stamping out any religion in favor of Communism. There aren’t enough religious people there, however this could change if a regional or civil war breaks out.

CHINA

The confrontation with Taiwan continues, as do hostilities with neighbors, separatists, dissenters and ancient enemies. China speeds up modernization of its armed forces, but in ways Westerners have a difficult time understanding (China is developing major Cyber War capabilities, and using them now.).

China will fall apart before it becomes a threat to the United States or even Taiwan. Chinese unity is very rare in Chinese history and time maybe running out for the Mao Dynasty.

COLOMBIA

After over three decades, leftist rebels losing support, recruits and territory. Leftist demagogue in Venezuela threatens to support rebels, but has not done much yet. The drug gangs and rebels have merged in many parts of the country, and war in increasingly about money, not ideology.

The Colombian Civil War is all but over, unless Chavez decides to pour money into the Communist side. I don’t see it happening unless Chavez is frustrated in his attempt to create an anti-American bloc in Latin America. I also don’t see the US ending the $3 billion worth of military aid given to the Columbian government every year either.

HAITI

Peacekeepers keep a lid on two century old violence between the rich and the poor, and the criminal and political gangs.

Haiti will become nothing more than a mismanaged UN colony.

INDIA-PAKISTAN

Kashmir is but one of many rebellions that beset the region. India also has tribal and Islamic rebel in the northeast, and Maoist (communist) ones in between. Pakistan has Islamic radicals in the north, and rebellious Pushtun and Baluchi tribes along the Afghan border. India and Pakistan have nukes, making escalation a potential catastrophe. As a result, recent peace talks have lowered the possibility of war, but both sides continue an arms race. Pakistani Islamic radical groups continue to support terrorism in India and Afghanistan, although with less support from the Pakistani government.

Status quo will be name of the game between India and Pakistan. The nukes have made the price of war too high for both nations.

INDONESIA

Separatism, pirates, Islamic terrorists and government corruption create a volatile situation that is slowly calming down. Aceh, however, is becoming a stronghold for Islamic conservatives. Newly independent East Timor has been unable to govern itself.

Indonesia, if it falls apart, will be the next base for Al-Qaeda now that they’ve been chased out of Somalia.

IRAN

Minority of Islamic conservatives have veto power over the majority of reformers. The supply of peaceful solutions is drying up. After that comes another revolution. Half the population consists of ethnic minorities (mainly Turks and Arabs), and these groups are getting more restive and violent. Meanwhile, the Islamic conservatives are determined to build nuclear weapons, rather than improving the economy and raising living standards. Unrest and terrorist violence becoming more common.

Iran will destroy itself in a revolution before it is able to become more of a regional power than it already is. US policy should be base itself on speeding up the process.

IRAQ

Sunni Arab minority tries to make peace with the majority Kurds and Shia Arabs. But Sunni Arab Islamic radicals still back terrorism attacks against government and Shia Arabs (who are considered heretics). Many Sunni Arabs are fleeing the country, and this appears to be how the war will end, with nearly all the Sunni Arabs dead or expelled. That sort of thing is an ancient practice in this part of the world. U.S. backing out of the picture, with U.S. casualties down four percent compared to last year.

Iraq will be status quo with the exception that US withdrawal will begin in the middle or later part of the year. After the US pulls back to Kurdistan or the other parts of the Middle East, then will Iraq decend into full blown civil war.

ISRAEL

Jewish and Palestinian radicals continue to confront peacemakers. The Palestinian people got tired of terrorism, even though they still support it, and are trying to work out a peace deal with Israel. Palestinian economy has collapsed as foreign charity dried up because the people elected Hamas (Islamic terrorists) party to power. Iran backed Islamic radicals in Lebanon have dragged Lebanon into a war with Israel, that left Lebanon a mess. Meanwhile, Israeli economy booms as Israel carries out its plan to wall itself off from the Palestinians (who don’t seem to be able to do anything right).

“Palestine” will continue to blow every opportunity at peaceful co-existance with Israel in 2007, that’s an easy prediction. “Palestine” will continue its current civil war, that’s also an easy prediction.

KOREA

After half a century, North Korea continues to destroy its economy, in order to maintain armed forces capable of invading South Korea. A nuclear weapons test changed nothing, although continued famine in the north has prompted China to send more and more troops to the border. North Korean military declines in power, as lack of money for maintenance or training cause continuing rot.

The North Korean regime will be ended by the Chinese moving in to take over. The Chinese do not want to be faced with millions of North Korean refugees when the North Korean regime eventually collapses.

KURDISH WAR

Kurds continue 5,000 year struggle to form their own country. But Iran cracks down on its Kurds, while Turkey threatens to move more troops into northern Iraq.

The Kurds will finally succeed when they establish an independent state in northern Iraq, though they’ll have to renounce any claims on Iran, Syria, and Turkey.

MEXICO

The passing of one-party rule, the growth of drug gangs, and increasing corruption in the security forces, has triggered growing violence and unrest.

Mexico is a nation on the verge of disintegration, unless the government can restore order down there. What’s compounding the problem is the disputed elections in 2006 where the current government is seen as illegitimate by large segments of the population. Until Mexico can reform and restore order, illegal immigration will continue to be a problem on the southern border.

RUSSIA

Rebuilding and reforming the Soviet era armed forces continues. The war against gangsters and Islamic radicals in Chechnya has been won, but the Islamic radicals continue to operate in other parts of the Caucasus.

Russia is another failed state in the making. The Russian population is going to dramatically shrink in the next few decades due to low birth rates. In addition to the Islamist threat in the Caucasus, the Chinese are illegally migrating into Siberia, which means Russia will probably lose Siberia to China in the next couple of decades. Finally, once Putin leaves office in 2008, a weaker man will take the presidency which will mean the chaos of the Yeltsin era will probably return.

If you want to know about other places, read the whole article. 2007 and beyond will be an interesting year.

Kevin Boyd
I’m one of the original co-founders of The Liberty Papers all the way back in 2005. Since then, I wound up doing this blogging thing professionally. Now I’m running the site now. You can find my other work at The Hayride.com and Rare. You can also find me over at the R Street Institute.
https://thelibertypapers.org/2005/11/22/a-bit-about-kevin/

Big Brother Continues To Grow

Individual Rights, Privacy, War on Terror

If you’re a British citizen flying to the United States, you better hope that there’s nothing suspicious on your credit card bills:

Britons flying to America could have their credit card and email accounts inspected by the United States authorities following a deal struck by Brussels and Washington.

By using a credit card to book a flight, passengers face having other transactions on the card inspected by the American authorities. Providing an email address to an airline could also lead to scrutiny of other messages sent or received on that account.

The extent of the demands were disclosed in “undertakings” given by the US Department of Homeland Security to the European Union and published by the Department for Transport after a Freedom of Information request.

These measures will be justified by pointing to September 11th and last summer’s arrest of British Muslims involved in a plot to bomb aircraft headed to the United States, no doubt. But it is already clear that the information collected will be used for far more than just combating terrorism:

Not only will such material be available when combating terrorism but the Americans have asserted the right to the same information when dealing with other serious crimes.

And the information will be available for use long after the person in question has left the United States:

Initially, such material could be inspected for seven days but a reduced number of US officials could view it for three and a half years. Should any record be inspected during this period, the file could remain open for eight years.

Material compiled by the border authorities can be shared with domestic agencies. It can also be on a “case by case” basis with foreign governments.

Washington promised to “encourage” US airlines to make similar information available to EU governments — rather than compel them to do so.

And the line between “compel” and “encourage” isn’t bright at all. I would expect similar information about American citizens flying abroad to be shared with foreign governments soon, if it isn’t happening already.

What is unclear is how monitoring this much information about this many people is going help in any significant respect in stopping a real terrorist from getting into the country. Compared to the massive violation of privacy and civil liberties that this involved, it would appear that the benefits of the program are really quite minimal.

Doug Mataconis
http://www.belowthebeltway.com

Saddam Death Sentence Upheld

Foreign Affairs, Theory and Ideas, War on Terror

Today, Saddam Hussein’s death sentence has been upheld and he will be executed in 30 days. It’s important to take a look at how he was sentenced and how his trial was conducted. Human Rights Watch released a disturbing report in November that detailed possible fundamental flaws in Saddam’s trial.

Some of the flaws identified were in the areas of court documentation, security for defense lawyers, weaknesses in defense representation, concerns about the presumption of innocence and the impartiality of the trial itself, problems with the defense’s ability to prepare for trial, the inability of the defense to question witnesses, and finally the disruptions of the defense counsel especially the international lawyers like Ramsey Clark who’s sole strategy was to disrupt the trial, among other flaws. Suffice to say, the Iraqi High Tribunal was nothing more than a kangaroo court. Saddam’s trial was unfair and he deserves a new trial at the very least.

This farcial trial and the execution will hurt American credibility in the world even more than its already hurt because this will tell the world we are not serious about civil liberties. It will tell the world that we are willing to have a kangaroo court conduct a farcical trial in order to give “legitmacy” to basically murdering Saddam. If the United States and the Iraqi government is serious about freedom and justice in Iraq, they admit the originial trial was a farce, rewrite the laws authorizing the Iraqi High Tribunal to better protect defendants’ rights and maintain order in the trial, protect witnesses’ security, bring in international experts to monitor the retrial, and retry Saddam for his crimes this time following accepted international rules of jurisprudence.

Finally, to all those soon to be commenters and bloggers who will accuse me of implying that Saddam is innocent or somehow a nice guy, I’m not saying that at all. I’m simply making the arguement that we do not suspend the rules for fair trials just because the defendant ran a state that was in the business of mass murder. It does everyone involved from the American soldiers who will be the targets of the rage that will result from the execution, to the victims of Saddam’s government who will be dishonored by the farcical trial, to the Iraqi and American governments who will bear the international criticism, rightly in this case, for the proceedings, to the Iraqi people who will face an even more dangerous security situation, if that’s possible, to finally the American people who will be an even more tempting target to Islamic terrorists seeking revenge for Saddam’s death; more harm than good to have the kangaroo court than a fair trial.

Kevin Boyd
I’m one of the original co-founders of The Liberty Papers all the way back in 2005. Since then, I wound up doing this blogging thing professionally. Now I’m running the site now. You can find my other work at The Hayride.com and Rare. You can also find me over at the R Street Institute.
https://thelibertypapers.org/2005/11/22/a-bit-about-kevin/

Another Bush Surrender (See Updates At Bottom of Page)

War on Terror

This time, in Somalia. The weak Somali interim government is under attack by Islamofascist militias with ties to Al-Qaeda. The Ethiopian government has deployed troops to support the Somali government. Yesterday, the Ethiopians upped the stakes by launching air strikes against Islamofascist militia positions in and around Mogadishu. Now, the Bush State Department doesn’t like that very much.

The Bush administration is urging a halt to conflict in Somalia that has intensified since neighboring Ethiopia launched air strikes on the country’s two main airports and sent ground troops into Somali territory. VOA’s Michael Bowman reports from Washington, Ethiopia’s military intervention is aimed at propping up the weak Somali government, which is challenged by a powerful Islamic militia.

The State Department says the United States is concerned by the deteriorating security situation in Somalia, and by the humanitarian impact of the fighting. A State Department spokesperson told VOA that Somali civilians should be protected, and that the United States is urging all Somali parties to cease hostile actions.

There was no mention of Ethiopia’s role in the conflict. However, the spokesperson said the United States encourages all sides to return to the negotiating table to find a solution that will bring peace and security to Somalia and the region, mirroring earlier statements from the European Union as well as the Arab League.

So, instead of cheering Ethiopia on as they proceed to destroy an Al-Qaeda aligned Islamofascist militia, the State Department wants them and the Somali government to sit down and talk to them. That’s nice, in fact, that makes about as much sense as the US sitting down with the Taliban and Al-Qaeda after 9/11. The Ethiopians should tell Bush to fark off and mind his own damn business and get back to them when he does something about Iraq.

Unfortunately, this is just another incident among many including the double standard that Israel is subjected to when fighting terrorists, the blind eye to the Iranian takeover of Iraq, the increasing debacle in Afghanistan, and the unwillingness to confront Saudi Arabia that demonstrates the lack of seriousness of the Bush Administration in fighting the War on Islamic Terror. Bush has two years to draw up a serious strategy to combat Islamofascist terrorism or he will be remembered as a failure along the lines of Jimmy Carter and LBJ.

UPDATE: I may have blown this call. The BushRice State Department actually is supporting the good guys here.

The State Department signaled support Tuesday for Ethiopian military operations against Somalia, noting that Ethiopia has had “genuine security concerns” stemming from the rise of Islamist forces in its eastern neighbor.

Department spokesman Gonzalo Gallegos also said that the Ethiopian military acted at the request of Somalia’s internationally backed secular government, which has been resisting with little success the spreading influence of the more powerful Islamist forces.

Gallegos noted that Ethiopia has said that its action is intended to prevent further aggression by the Islamic Courts militias.

So today at least, the State Department opposes Al-Qaeda. What about tomorrow?

UPDATE II: A Kossack proves why they can’t be trusted with national security.

Basically it comes down to this:

Ethiopia is not acting in the interests of the Somalian people.

Ethiopia is bombing civilian area of Somalia and invading a country that had not attacked them.

The Somalia Transitional Government is a joke to the average Somalian citizen. So why should we back them?

The al-Qaeda claims against the ICU in Somalia comes from dubious sources.

1)It’s not Ethiopia’s job to act in the interests of the Somalian people. It’s Ethiopia’s job to act in the interests of the Ethiopian people.

2) The “civilian areas” being bombed are transit points for jihadis. As for the “not attacking them”, see this:

The Islamists have caused unease in Washington by expressing interest in establishing a “Greater Somalia” that would include ethnic Somali regions of Ethiopia, Kenya and Djibouti.

Obviously if they nip this potential threat in the bud, so be it.

3) The Somali “government” is far more preferable to an Al-Qaeda proxy army running the show, any day of the week.

4) The “dubious sources” are various jihadis coming in from Pakistan, Chechnya, and the Arab states who are coming to fight and martyr themselves for Allah. Obviously if they get the martyrdom they seek now, it will be better for everyone involved, especially the infidels who won’t have to die as a result of the delayed martyrdom.

Kevin Boyd
I’m one of the original co-founders of The Liberty Papers all the way back in 2005. Since then, I wound up doing this blogging thing professionally. Now I’m running the site now. You can find my other work at The Hayride.com and Rare. You can also find me over at the R Street Institute.
https://thelibertypapers.org/2005/11/22/a-bit-about-kevin/

TSA Violated Privacy Laws

Privacy, War on Terror

Don’t you feel safer?

Report Says TSA Violated Privacy Law

Secure Flight, the U.S. government’s stalled program to screen domestic air passengers against terrorism watch lists, violated federal law during a crucial test phase, according to a report to be issued today by the Homeland Security Department’s privacy office.

The agency found that by gathering passenger data from commercial brokers in 2004 without notifying the passengers, the program violated a 1974 Privacy Act requirement that the public be made aware of any changes in a federal program that affects the privacy of U.S. citizens. “As ultimately implemented, the commercial data test conducted in connection with the Secure Flight program testing did not match [the Transportation Security Administration’s] public announcements,” the report states.

The story hinges not about whether it’s correct for our TSA to create enormous databases on all air travel passengers in order to increase security, which is something that I doubt they could effectively do anyway. Nor does it hinge on the fact that quite a few people never knew about these databases, and never consented to having their travel habits monitored by the government.

No, in a truly anti-climactic sense, nothing in this story has to do with whether the database should even exist. It has to do with the source of the data for the database.

In 2004, the TSA published a Federal Register notice on a data-test phase of the program, saying that “strict firewalls” would prevent any commercial data from mixing with government data. However, this was based on the notion that the Secure Flight contractor, EagleForce Associates Inc. of McLean, would ensure that no commercial data were used, the report said.

But by the time the EagleForce contract was finalized, “it was clear that TSA would receive commercial data,” the report says. If, for instance, TSA data for an individual passenger lacked an address or date of birth, EagleForce would obtain the missing information from commercial data brokers.

“The fact that EagleForce had access to the commercial data did not create a firewall,” the report says, because under the Privacy Act, in effect, “EagleForce stands in the shoes of TSA.”

It was going to be a “strict firewall”, and if I know our government, maybe the data would have ended up in a “lockbox”. But think about the implications of this. I’m sure the TSA has been less than forthcoming about what exactly goes into this database. But the government, as far as I’m aware, only has certain information about each of us*. With the help of EagleForce, of course, they have access to just about anything. I’m sure that probably includes bank records, credit scores, and a host of other things that have become part of our “targeted-advertising” world. I’m sure if they got a hold of my Amazon.com purchasing history, they’d probably keep a closer eye on me.

This comes on the heels of other fun revelations about the TSA’s privacy-protection philosophy:

Moreover, commercial databases provided Eagle Force with data for some individuals who were not air passengers. These people were never notified — a violation of the privacy act, the report says.

…

A 2004 probe found that the TSA improperly stored 100 million commercial data records containing personal information on passengers after the agency said no data storage would occur.

Commercial data information on people who don’t fly, that’s saved into a database that’s not supposed to exist. I’m sure this does wonders for improving air safety. Especially after Flight 93, which was a signal to every terrorist in the world that they’ll be unsuccessful due not to air marshals or the TSA, but due to actions of ordinary passengers.

Of course, much like my post on the War on Sudafed, there’s always some sort of government apologist to explain how this is nothing to worry about, and all is moving forward as planned. And this time, they went straight to the top:

TSA Administrator Kip Hawley said that he supports the use of Secure Flight and that his agency is working closely with other government officials to ensure it protects privacy. “We are working in a transparent way,” Hawley said, adding that the agency’s “challenging” goal is to roll out the program in 2008.

Yep, move along, nothing to see here. We promise we’ll fix this by rollout.

» Read more

Brad Warbiany
https://thelibertypapers.org/
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