The Liberty Papers

Strategypage.com had a report about the world’s current hotspots and a look ahead to 2007. In it, they give a summary of various conflicts around the world and some places to watch in the year to see if flare up.

First, they explain the “War on Terror”:

The War on Terror has become the War Against Islamic Radicalism. This movement has always been around, for Islam was born as an aggressive movement, that used violence and terror to expand. Past periods of conquest are regarded fondly by Moslems, and still called upon to inspire the faithful. The current enthusiasm for violence in the name of God has been building for over half a century. Historically, periods of Islamic radicalism flared up periodically in response to corrupt governments, as a vain attempt to impose a religious solution on some social or political problem. The current violence is international because of the availability of planet wide mass media (which needed a constant supply of headlines), and the fact that the Islamic world is awash in tyranny and economic backwardness. Islamic radicalism itself is incapable of mustering much military power, and the movement largely relies on terrorism to gain attention. Most of the victims are fellow Moslems, which is why the radicals eventually become so unpopular among their own people that they run out of new recruits and fade away. This is what is happening now. The American invasion of Iraq was a clever exploitation of this, forcing the Islamic radicals to fight in Iraq, where they killed many Moslems, especially women and children, thus causing the Islamic radicals to lose their popularity among Moslems.

This paragraph should give more pause to the Bush Administration and other neo-cons who want to build democracy without liberalism in the Middle East. A major reason why Islamic states are more tyrannical than most is because of the nature of the Islamic religion, not in spite of it. There must be substantial changes in the Islamic religion before liberal democracy can take off in the Islamic world.

Then, Strategypage analyses some current conflicts in the world:

AFGHANISTAN

Taliban are fighting back more vigorously, but without much success. A sharp increase in Taliban activity in 2006 brought forth a sharp response from government and NATO forces. Independent minded tribes, warlords and drug gangs remain a greater threat to peace, prosperity and true national unity, than the Taliban (which is based across the border in Pakistan).

The Taliban have been reduced to a mere nuisance and Al-Qaeda is beaten. However, Afghanistan is going to be solved by a political solution that result in giving some autonomy to the various regions and tribes while strengthening the central government.

BALKANS

The Greater Albania Movement is driven by part time Albanian nationalists, full time gangsters. Kosovo separatists and a growing number of Islamic radicals. Bosnia continues to attract Islamic terrorists.

I don’t see the Greater Albania crowd getting much support outside of Kosovo (which will probably become independent from Serbia by the end of the decade); but I’m more troubled by the Islamization of Bosnia. During and after the Balkan War, Islamist operatives and fighters have been coming into Bosnia to fight against the Serbs and Croats and to get an Islamist foothold in Europe. If the Islamists feel they’re getting strong enough, they may try and bring down the Bosnian government and turn on the Serb and Croat populations in the country thereby reigniting the Balkan Wars of the early 1990s. This region of the world will bear monitoring.

CENTRAL ASIA

Dictators brew rebellion by suppressing democrats and Islamic radicals. But not much violence, just a lot of potential.

I’m not sure if Islamic radicals could gain traction in this part of the world because of the Soviet successes in stamping out any religion in favor of Communism. There aren’t enough religious people there, however this could change if a regional or civil war breaks out.

CHINA

The confrontation with Taiwan continues, as do hostilities with neighbors, separatists, dissenters and ancient enemies. China speeds up modernization of its armed forces, but in ways Westerners have a difficult time understanding (China is developing major Cyber War capabilities, and using them now.).

China will fall apart before it becomes a threat to the United States or even Taiwan. Chinese unity is very rare in Chinese history and time maybe running out for the Mao Dynasty.

COLOMBIA

After over three decades, leftist rebels losing support, recruits and territory. Leftist demagogue in Venezuela threatens to support rebels, but has not done much yet. The drug gangs and rebels have merged in many parts of the country, and war in increasingly about money, not ideology.

The Colombian Civil War is all but over, unless Chavez decides to pour money into the Communist side. I don’t see it happening unless Chavez is frustrated in his attempt to create an anti-American bloc in Latin America. I also don’t see the US ending the $3 billion worth of military aid given to the Columbian government every year either.

HAITI

Peacekeepers keep a lid on two century old violence between the rich and the poor, and the criminal and political gangs.

Haiti will become nothing more than a mismanaged UN colony.

INDIA-PAKISTAN

Kashmir is but one of many rebellions that beset the region. India also has tribal and Islamic rebel in the northeast, and Maoist (communist) ones in between. Pakistan has Islamic radicals in the north, and rebellious Pushtun and Baluchi tribes along the Afghan border. India and Pakistan have nukes, making escalation a potential catastrophe. As a result, recent peace talks have lowered the possibility of war, but both sides continue an arms race. Pakistani Islamic radical groups continue to support terrorism in India and Afghanistan, although with less support from the Pakistani government.

Status quo will be name of the game between India and Pakistan. The nukes have made the price of war too high for both nations.

INDONESIA

Separatism, pirates, Islamic terrorists and government corruption create a volatile situation that is slowly calming down. Aceh, however, is becoming a stronghold for Islamic conservatives. Newly independent East Timor has been unable to govern itself.

Indonesia, if it falls apart, will be the next base for Al-Qaeda now that they’ve been chased out of Somalia.

IRAN

Minority of Islamic conservatives have veto power over the majority of reformers. The supply of peaceful solutions is drying up. After that comes another revolution. Half the population consists of ethnic minorities (mainly Turks and Arabs), and these groups are getting more restive and violent. Meanwhile, the Islamic conservatives are determined to build nuclear weapons, rather than improving the economy and raising living standards. Unrest and terrorist violence becoming more common.

Iran will destroy itself in a revolution before it is able to become more of a regional power than it already is. US policy should be base itself on speeding up the process.

IRAQ

Sunni Arab minority tries to make peace with the majority Kurds and Shia Arabs. But Sunni Arab Islamic radicals still back terrorism attacks against government and Shia Arabs (who are considered heretics). Many Sunni Arabs are fleeing the country, and this appears to be how the war will end, with nearly all the Sunni Arabs dead or expelled. That sort of thing is an ancient practice in this part of the world. U.S. backing out of the picture, with U.S. casualties down four percent compared to last year.

Iraq will be status quo with the exception that US withdrawal will begin in the middle or later part of the year. After the US pulls back to Kurdistan or the other parts of the Middle East, then will Iraq decend into full blown civil war.

ISRAEL

Jewish and Palestinian radicals continue to confront peacemakers. The Palestinian people got tired of terrorism, even though they still support it, and are trying to work out a peace deal with Israel. Palestinian economy has collapsed as foreign charity dried up because the people elected Hamas (Islamic terrorists) party to power. Iran backed Islamic radicals in Lebanon have dragged Lebanon into a war with Israel, that left Lebanon a mess. Meanwhile, Israeli economy booms as Israel carries out its plan to wall itself off from the Palestinians (who don’t seem to be able to do anything right).

“Palestine” will continue to blow every opportunity at peaceful co-existance with Israel in 2007, that’s an easy prediction. “Palestine” will continue its current civil war, that’s also an easy prediction.

KOREA

After half a century, North Korea continues to destroy its economy, in order to maintain armed forces capable of invading South Korea. A nuclear weapons test changed nothing, although continued famine in the north has prompted China to send more and more troops to the border. North Korean military declines in power, as lack of money for maintenance or training cause continuing rot.

The North Korean regime will be ended by the Chinese moving in to take over. The Chinese do not want to be faced with millions of North Korean refugees when the North Korean regime eventually collapses.

KURDISH WAR

Kurds continue 5,000 year struggle to form their own country. But Iran cracks down on its Kurds, while Turkey threatens to move more troops into northern Iraq.

The Kurds will finally succeed when they establish an independent state in northern Iraq, though they’ll have to renounce any claims on Iran, Syria, and Turkey.

MEXICO

The passing of one-party rule, the growth of drug gangs, and increasing corruption in the security forces, has triggered growing violence and unrest.

Mexico is a nation on the verge of disintegration, unless the government can restore order down there. What’s compounding the problem is the disputed elections in 2006 where the current government is seen as illegitimate by large segments of the population. Until Mexico can reform and restore order, illegal immigration will continue to be a problem on the southern border.

RUSSIA

Rebuilding and reforming the Soviet era armed forces continues. The war against gangsters and Islamic radicals in Chechnya has been won, but the Islamic radicals continue to operate in other parts of the Caucasus.

Russia is another failed state in the making. The Russian population is going to dramatically shrink in the next few decades due to low birth rates. In addition to the Islamist threat in the Caucasus, the Chinese are illegally migrating into Siberia, which means Russia will probably lose Siberia to China in the next couple of decades. Finally, once Putin leaves office in 2008, a weaker man will take the presidency which will mean the chaos of the Yeltsin era will probably return.

If you want to know about other places, read the whole article. 2007 and beyond will be an interesting year.