Monthly Archives: January 2008

Nevada and South Carolina Wrap-Up

Well, on the Republican side Mitt Romney won Nevada (uncontested) and John McCain won South Carolina.

The Republican race finally narrows with departure of Duncan Hunter and the probable departure of Fred Thompson after his third place finish in South Carolina.

Now for the rest:

John McCain: He has the momentum going into Florida. Basically, if McCain wins Florida, he’ll win the nomination.

Mitt Romney: Romney’s three golds as he likes to portray them have a bit of tarnish to them. Two of them (Wyoming and Nevada) were uncontested for all intents and purposes. Furthermore, the Wyoming Caucus was dominated by party hacks who are mostly supporting Romney. Plus, Romney was the native son in Michigan. However, his poor showing in South Carolina shows that Romney’s support is very weak in the South. Florida is probably do or die for Romney.

Mike Huckabee: He’s dead but he probably doesn’t realize it.

Rudy Giuliani: He wins Florida, he’s still alive. He loses Florida, he’s dead.

Ron Paul: Despite winning 2nd in Nevada, Ron Paul is still dead.

Now for the Democrats, Nevada was so close that it was probably not important in the long term scheme of things. South Carolina will determine the momentum going into Super Tuesday.

I’m one of the original co-founders of The Liberty Papers all the way back in 2005. Since then, I wound up doing this blogging thing professionally. Now I’m running the site now. You can find my other work at The Hayride.com and Rare. You can also find me over at the R Street Institute.

Nevada/South Carolina Predictions And Saturday Open Thread

Once again, I tread into the dangerous and, so far unsuccessful, world of prediction.

In this case, today’s South Carolina Republican Primary and Nevada Caucuses.

First Nevada:

Democrats

  1. Barack Obama
  2. Hillary Clinton
  3. John Edwards

The current polls show Clinton with a slight edge, but caucuses are harder to poll than primaries and I think Obama will win based on a combination of his endorsement from the Culinary Workers Union and resentment over the efforts of Clinton’s backers in the Teacher’s Union to stop the casino caucus sites.

Republicans

  1. Mitt Romney
  2. John McCain
  3. Mike Huckabee
  4. Rudy Giuliani
  5. Ron Paul
  6. Fred Thompson

Nothing too surprising here. Nevada has over 100,000 Mormons, so that gives Romney a fairly substantial base to work with. The only change I could see to the above would be if more Ron Paul supporters come out than predicted and push him into 4th place instead of 5th.

And, finally, South Carolina:

  1. John McCain
  2. Mike Huckabee
  3. Fred Thompson
  4. Mitt Romney
  5. Ron Paul
  6. Rudy Giuliani

Late polls show Huckabee closing on McCain, but the more interesting question will be if Thompson is able to do better than expected. A strong third would be good for him, but second place is what his campaign really needs.

As always, feel free to criticize.

Mike Huckabee vs. The First Amendment

In an interview on NPR, Mike Huckabee said that he wants to outlaw all independent speech in political campaigns:

Republican presidential hopeful Mike Huckabee on Wednesday disavowed the use of a negative campaign tactic known as “push polling” being used on his behalf by an independent group ahead of the South Carolina primary.

Huckabee said he disagreed with the automated phone calls purporting to be part of a survey that instead disparage rival candidates. The “push polling” calls were being made by Colorado-based Common Sense Issues in support of the Huckabee campaign.

“We don’t know who these people are,” the former Arkansas governor told NPR’s Morning Edition. “I personally wish all of this were outlawed. I think that every candidate ought to speak for himself.”

More detail from the radio interview itself:

I personally wish that all of this were outlawed. I think that every candidate ought to speak for himself, and that everything that involves the candidate’s name or another candidate’s name should be authorized and approved by that candidate, otherwise it shouldn’t be spoken . . . The point is that candidates can’t force these special interest 527 groups to stop. I wish we could.

The Club for Growth’s Pat Toomey puts it best:

“Under a Mike Huckabee presidency, no individual or group would be allowed to criticize a politician’s policies without the politician’s approval. Which part of ‘Congress shall make no law . . . abridging the freedom of speech,’ is lost on Governor Huckabee?”

Maybe that’s one of the parts of the Constitution he wants to amend

Hillary Wants To Do For The Housing Market What She Tried To Do For Health Care

Destroy it.

At the last Democratic debate, Hillary Clinton laid out her proposal to deal with the subprime mortgage crisis:

“I have a plan – a moratorium on foreclosures for 90 days [and] freezing interest rates for five years, which I think we should do immediately,” Clinton announced at what was the last Democratic debate before the Nevada Caucus on Jan. 19.

As Fortune’s Jon Birger notes, Clinton’s proposal for an interest rate freeze would be a complete, utter disaster:

[S]uch a freeze would be disastrous. Interest rates on new mortgages would skyrocket – perhaps past 8 percent, as the mutual funds, pension funds and other investors who typically provide capital to the mortgage market shift their money into other investments where the government isn’t impairing returns. With higher mortgage rates eroding buying power, the downward pressure on home prices would only increase. Lower home prices would lead to even more defaults, as more folks who’d lost the equity in their homes choose to walk away from their mortgages.

“It certainly would not speed the recovery of the housing market,” says Doug Duncan, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association. “The problem now is that investors are already worried about what the risks are, and (a rate freeze) would only widen risk premiums more.”

Then there’s the long-term impact such a bailout would have on behavior. While Clinton’s plan would no doubt save some legitimate victims who were duped into taking out bad loans, she’d also be saving the flippers and speculators who knew the risks of low teaser rate mortgages but figured (wrongly) that they could always sell their house for a profit if the reset mortgage rate proved unaffordable. Bailing out these folks now would only encourage them to take even bigger risks down the line.

And, you see, that’s what this housing crisis is all about. People took risks and made dumb decisions and now they’re paying the consequence for it. It would’ve made much more sense to find suitable land to redevelop properties on, like The Property Block does, as this is a much more effective way to solve this particular problem.
And if that doesn’t work, the only sane and rational thing to do is to allow the crisis to play itself out, and whether that means more foreclosures or banks renegotiating the terms of loans to allow people to get out from under payments they can’t afford is something that private parties, not the government should decide. That being said, real estate companies like the property block have developed new technologies that allow them to redevelop homes to make them more affordable. This way private companies are solving the housing crisis, and not the government.

But Hillary’s proposal just reminds me of the something else. The Republicans are bad on economics, but at least they aren’t proposing a plan that would send the housing market into a death spiral.

So who do you vote for — the eventual Republican nominee, whoever that might be, or the woman who will destroy the economy ?

More On The Ron Paul Newsletter Story

Julian Sanchez, who co-authored a Reason article detailing the history behind the Ron Paul newsletters, responds today to some of the criticism that has been thrown his way:

First, Paul was not going to be the next president, or even the next Republican nominee, in any parallel universe remotely close to ours. We have not deep-sixed the Paul Administration. The movement behind Paul is a good thing to the extent it raises awareness about our ideas, and demonstrates that there really is a constituency for a candidate who talks about peace and small government. And the best thing that could happen from that perspective, I think, is for Paul to come clean and ensure that people don’t start thinking of “property rights,” like “states rights,” as some kind of bad-faith codeword for racism.

Second, do people think this story wouldn’t have come out if we hadn’t run it? Jamie Kirchick was on exactly the same trail we were, and so was John Tabin at the Spectator, and so, probably, were others. The question was whether we’d break it, dispelling the impression that libertarians are happy to wink at racism, or whether someone far more hostile to Paul would.

Sanchez’s entire post is worth a read, and I pretty much agree with everything he has to say there.

In other news, David Weigel reports some interesting news:

I just had a conversation with Tom Lizardo, Ron Paul’s longtime congressional chief of staff, who wanted to say this on the record:

Last week, a statement was prepared by Ron Paul’s press secretary Jesse Benton, and approved by Ron Paul, acknowledging Lew Rockwell as having a role in the newsletters. The statement was squashed by campaign chairman Kent Snyder

Curious.

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